Inflation forecast uncertainty

Inflation forecast contracts

We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers' remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contra...

The Relation Between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty In Iran

Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty : US Inflation and Output Growth

Survey respondents who make point predictions and histogram forecasts of macrovariables reveal both how uncertain they believe the future to be, ex ante, as well as their ex post performance. Macroeconomic forecasters tend to be overconfident at horizons of a year or more, but over-estimate the uncertainty surrounding their predictions at short horizons. Journal of Economic Literature classific...

Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty and Output in Tunisia

Reply : We think that the Tunisian case is also interesting for a broad audience. Tunisia has made important progress over the last decade toward establishing a sound bank intermediation, deepening its financial market, mobilizing domestic financing, and using indirect market-based monetary policy instruments. Monetary policy is useful to obtain a stable macroeconomic environment in favor of a ...

The Inflation Forecast and the Loss Function *

This paper argues that inflation-targeting central banks should announce explicit loss function with numerical relative weights on output-gap stabilization and use and announce optimal time-varying instrument-rate paths and corresponding inflation and output-gap forecasts. Simple voting procedures for forming the Monetary Policy Committee’s aggregate loss function and time-varying instrument-ra...